Eşik Değerli Granger Nedensellik analizi. THE EFFECTS OF CAR PRODUCTION ON THE FOREIGN TRADE DEFICIT OF TURKEY: THRESHOLD ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

This paper examines whether cars production can be used to close the foreign trade deficit of Turkey by using the data over the period from January 1992 to August 2011. Threshold error correction model introduced by Hansen and Seo(2002) and threshold Granger causality test introduced by Li(2006) are used. It can be concluded that automotive sector is important for Turkish economy but it is inadequate instrument to close the foreign trade deficit of Turkey.

Keywords:

Foreign trade deficit, Threshold Error Correction model, Threshold Granger Causality.